Jan. 26, 2006

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COLLEGE STATION – Texas drought losses have reached an estimated $1.5 billion, fueled by high hay costs and extended supplemental feeding for livestock, Texas Cooperative Extension reports.

"More than 90 percent of the state's range and pastures are in extreme, stressed condition," said Dr. Carl Anderson, professor emeritus and Extension economist. "Hay supplies are short and expensive. Water supplies are short and will only worsen if we don't get any rain soon. The main problem for ranchers is having enough hay and buying enough feed."

"The updated numbers reflect an extended long period of supplemental feeding that has gone on a lot longer than normal," said Dr. David Anderson, Extension livestock marketing economist.

Ranchers are re-culling cattle and selling heifer calves, which will likely cut down the state's cow numbers, Carl Anderson said.

"We can expect a tightening of cows in the next year or two," he said.

Most calves have been shipped directly to feedlots due to lack of wheat fields to graze, he said. Much of the state's 2005 hay production was cut in half due to lack of rainfall, driving up prices for hay and forcing ranchers to spend more money for supplemental feed this winter.

"Overall, the soil profile statewide is dry," said Dr. Travis Miller, associate Extension head, department of soil and crop sciences at Texas A&M University. "The planting prospects are looking pretty grim for spring crops, particularly in South Texas. Normally, we start planting corn and sorghum in mid February. That won't happen unless we get some water to put in the soil profiles."

More than 90 percent of the wheat statewide is poor to very poor, Miller said.

"We've had no utilization of wheat for grazing in non-irrigated fields, which is normally a major industry in Texas," Miller said. "In East Texas, most ryegrass and small grain pastures didn't come up or haven't had enough growth to graze. The wheat stands have failed or are marginal. There has been significant damage to the overall state wheat crop."

East Texas has been one of the hardest hit regions. Typically, about 750,000 to 1 million acres of winter pasture in ryegrass or ryegrass blended with oats is planted to offset supplemental feeding bills. Lack of rainfall never allowed those plantings to surface, Carl Anderson said.

The current drought will also impact consumers at grocery outlets in the next few months if there is no rain, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley where much of the state's vegetable production is produced.

"Eventually, consumers will be see a shortage of fresh vegetables and beef prices will also be increased because of less cows," he said.

The one bright spot for the Rio Grande Valley is adequate supplies of irrigation water are available in reservoirs, Miller noted.

Dry conditions in Texas have prevailed since April of last year. According to the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service, range and pasture conditions in January were rated 63 percent very poor and 27 percent poor.

The index used to calculate the state's wheat crop is rated 20 compared to 82 a year ago (on a scale of 100), Carl Anderson said.

"Top soil moisture by crop reporting districts around the state as a percent of acreage shows all districts to be 50 (percent) to 98 percent very short, except in the Coastal region where it's only 11 percent very short," he said.

Rain would strengthen planting prospects in the Rio Grande Valley and Coastal Bend, Carl Anderson said. The current drought has also led to wildfires, destroying hay, fence posts and buildings, he noted.