Oct. 25, 2006

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COLLEGE STATION – Several areas will see above-average rainfall in October through December, according to a National Weather Service official.

Many areas across the state reported rainfall from 2 to 10 inches in the past week, something Victor Murphy, National Weather Service climate service program manager in Fort Worth, said can be expected to continue.

The phenomenon in the Central Pacific Ocean called El Nino is starting to appear, Murphy said.

"Based on this, from a scientific perspective, there is a more-likely-than-not probability that all of Texas will receive above-average rainfall during the October/November/December time period," he said.

The excess rainfall anomaly through the three-month period is about 1 inch in the Panhandle, Murphy said, and increases to approximately 3 to 4 inches in East Texas and Southeast Texas.

"That's really good news if the next three months have above-average rainfall," said Dr. Galen Chandler, Texas Cooperative Extension director in the Rolling Plains area.

Parts of the Rolling Plains received an average of 3 in 6 inches of rain over the weekend and had some prior to that, Chandler said, making for a "pretty wet October , and that's not real typical."

A lot of wheat was planted and it needed some moisture, he said. The rain is really going to put the wheat in good condition.

There are some harvested peanuts on top of the ground, Chandler said. But after talking to some peanut farmers, he said they didn't think it would hurt them that much unless they got heavy, standing rains.

"Obviously it will help the range and pasture situation," he said. "It will help fill up some tanks. It really came at a good time."

The following are reports from Extension districts around the state:

PANHANDLE: Temperatures were variable during the week with several days below average. Most of the northern portion had their first freeze for this fall. Rain was isolated and light except for areas to the south and southeast, where amounts of 0.5 to 5 inches were reported. Soil moisture is rated very short to surplus with most areas reporting short to adequate. Corn harvest is about wrapped up. In general, yields are down 10 percent to 20 percent. Cotton is rated mostly fair to good; harvest is just getting under way. Peanut harvest continues, but no yields have been reported. Some sorghum has been harvested, but most of the crop needs more warm temperatures. Wheat is about 90 percent planted, and stands are rated mostly fair to good. Prospects are good for fall grazing. Range conditions are rated mostly fair to good. Cattle are in good condition.

SOUTH PLAINS: Wet and cool weather continued this week with some areas receiving 2 to 4 inches of rainfall. Soil moisture is adequate. Producers continue to apply harvest aids to cotton, but harvest has been delayed and will not pick up again until dry conditions prevail. Some lint quality and weight loss will occur with the current weather pattern. Corn harvest is almost complete. Lots of peanut acres have been dug and are lying on top of the ground awaiting drier conditions before harvesting. Peanuts that have been harvested are showing good yields and grades. Wheat is in good condition and is beginning to emerge with recent rains. Sorghum, much of it planted late, is mostly colored with some areas entering full maturity. Pastures and ranges are in fair to good condition. Livestock are in good condition.

ROLLING PLAINS: Last week's rains dropped from 3 to 7 inches in a span of a couple of days. The slow rate of the rain soaked the ground. Livestock dirt tanks filled up and the creeks rose. Slow soaking rains provided a jump start for the wheat crop. Early planted wheat perked up considerably, and October planted wheat emerged this week. Some peanuts where dug before the rain and producers have been unable to thrash them. Cotton is maturing every day, but some producers have already applied harvest aids. Some cattle raisers will probably try to buy back into the cow/calf situation since they have water in pastures that have not been grazed since May or June due to drought. Livestock are looking good with some ranches in the middle of working spring calves, weaning them to feedlots, grass or wheat.

NORTH: Soil moisture ranged from short to adequate. Some areas had rainfall over the past few days of 1 to 4 inches. Soil moisture and cooler temperatures are helping with cool-season forages. Recent rains helped bring up any winter pasture planted, but because of the drought, not much was planted. The slow rain that fell early in the week saved some of the winter pastures and will help wheat producers. Pond levels are still extremely low. Bermuda grass perked up, but it is too late in the growing season for much growth. Most fields of oats are looking good. Sweet potato harvest continues and growers are reporting yields much below normal. Planting wheat for grain will be in full swing within the next week or so. Harvest of all spring crops is complete. The cattle market has been active.

EAST: As the saying goes, "when it rains it pours." Every county has received rain from 1 inch up to 20 inches for the week. Areas of Angelina County have some rain gauges overflowing while other parts of the county only received 1to 2 inches. Hay is still in short supply, and producers are still liquidating cattle. Winter pastures finally have enough moisture to get started. Most parts of Tyler County were under water for at least two to three days and some area producers in the area lost hay and cattle to high waters.

FAR WEST: Soil moisture ranges from very short to surplus, and ranges and pastures vary from very poor to excellent condition. Cotton is in very poor to excellent condition. Winter wheat is in poor to good condition. The recent floods in El Paso County did lots of damage to cotton, pecan and onion crops. Almost all of the district reported rainfall this week, with amounts varying from 0.5 inch to 3.5 inches.

WEST CENTRAL: Temperatures are cooling down. Very mild weather conditions this week. Some rainfall was reported in a few counties. Producers are preparing fields for fall planting. Planted oats have emerged with moderate growth. Hay is being cut and baled on irrigated pastures. Cotton harvest is under way, but the crop will not be as good as last year's. Range and pasture conditions continue to improve. Winter grasses and forbs are doing well. Stock tanks continue to need water. Pecan harvest is under way.

CENTRAL: Rains the last two weekends are helping small grains tremendously. Milk production is much improved. Hay producers are getting a light cutting before frost on coastal Bermuda. Most producers are continuing to feed hay, protein and energy supplements to livestock herds, but see prospects of discontinuing as both warm season grasses and cool season annuals continue their development.

SOUTHEAST: More than 8.5 inches of rain fell this week in parts of the region, moving the country from drought to flood conditions. Winter pastures are being planted now with the earlier planted seed growing well after rains. Hay producers are hoping for one more cutting. Most farm ponds are full following the rains. Rains may benefit the peanut crop, but might also cause pod rot. Pecans are being harvested with expectations of a light crop. Deer hunters are busy putting out feed and corn for wildlife. Cooler temperatures will slow most Bermuda grass stands down. While the average across the area was about 5 to 7 inches of rain, beginning the evening of Oct. 15, the Angleton area and northward received 8 to 10 inches of rain overnight, with another 5 inches the following day. Widespread flooding occurred around Angleton, north and to the east. By week's end, bayous were still well above flood stage. The San Bernard River was out of its banks and 4 feet above flood stage, while the Brazos River remained within its banks.

SOUTHWEST: Cool weather and isolated rain showers have allowed some growth of cool season forages, but the region remains very dry. Year-to-date cumulative rainfall remains at about 30 percent of the long-term average for the same period. Forage availability is in extremely short supply. Few acres of dryland small grains have been planted because of the drought. Irrigated forages are growing rapidly, with some greenbug and armyworm problems. Cabbage, cucumbers for pickling, green beans and some southern greens continue to make good progress under heavy irrigation. Cucumbers and green beans are being harvested. The peanut harvest has gained momentum, but yields are down due to the drought and record-high temperatures in August. About 5 percent of the cotton remains stored in field modules. The pecan harvest is rapidly gaining momentum with excellent price bids for good quality pecans.

COASTAL BEND: Cooler conditions with some rain occurred in the reporting area this week. Recent rains have been helpful, but areas still need more rainfall to replenish the soil strata and ponds. Major activities have been weed spraying applications and hay harvest. Field activities have been limited as wet soils are thwarting completion of harvest and cotton stalk destruction. Cattle conditions are improving as forage becomes more plentiful.

SOUTH: Soil moisture conditions throughout the region have been short to adequate. Dryland wheat, oats and winter rye are all in need of some moisture to begin the growing process. Producers' reports this week have indicated that some wheat and oats did not have enough soil moisture to emerge from the ground. Spinach planting for both fresh market and processing spinach varieties began this week. Sugarcane and citrus harvesting has begun. Some scattered showers have continued to provide needed moisture for crop and rangelands in some areas. Livestock conditions remain fair as forage availability continues to remain fair to good due to cooler temperatures and dry conditions. Field work has resumed in areas too wet to work last week.