AUSTIN – An agronomist with the Texas Agricultural Extension Service told members of Texas' Drought Preparedness Council Thursday despite recent rainfall throughout most of Texas, soil conditions remain dry.
"The recent rains are bringing some relief," said Travis Miller, Extension agronomist and council member. "The green that we are seeing is good. But during 1998 at this time of the year, we were wetter than we are now. Currently, 25 percent of the state is still dry and a lot of the stock tanks aren't full – that's a pretty good indication of what's in our soil profile."
Miller expects to see a portion of the state's wheat crop, which never reached harvest potential and couldn't cover production costs, will be grazed by stocker cattle since the beef market continues to support high prices.
"But I don't see ranchers buying a lot of cattle since there are good prices," Miller said. "I don't see them restocking. I think ranchers are watching the weather situation very closely."
In Miller's report to the council members, he said farmers and ranchers are well advised to cautiously evaluate current conditions and monitor long-range forecasts as they plan for the 2000 crop.
More than half of the state's corn crop and 46 percent of the state's rice crop have already been seeded, Miller said. Nine percent of the state's cotton crop has been planted so far.
Miller said Texas' wheat crop "is a wreck" with only 50 million bushels expected to be harvested in 2000 compared to 130 million bushels in 1999. Drought has led to $55 million in wheat losses, according to Extension economists, including 400,000 acres that weren't planted in the fall of 1999 and $14 million worth of crop that either never came up or has since died.
Eighty percent of the current wheat crop is rated from fair to very poor. Most of the dryland wheat crop, with the exception of the central, north and east Texas will not be harvested for grain or will not provide enough income to cover production costs due to drought and low prices. Miller said it's anticipated that many of these marginal wheat fields will be grazed out rather than be kept for grain harvest.
Darrell Peckham, an official with the Texas Water Development Board, told council members, "The local rains were very beneficial, but statewide it was just a blip. We can expect things to not really look promising (in the months ahead.) The drought is long term and doesn't end over night."
Peckham said the statewide reservoir average for the end of March was the lowest in 23 years at 71.7 percent. It increased to just 72 percent statewide during the first week of April.
"One of the risks that we run now from the recent rains is quick drying," Peckham said. "A lot of the plant growth is generating fuel for fires."
Texas farmers and ranchers are enduring a fourth drought in five years, already costing the state's agricultural producers $96 million through the early part of 2000, according to Extension economists. Texas farmers and ranchers lost another $223 million in the fall of 1999. The 1996 drought resulted in $2 billion in producer losses, while the 1998 drought caused $2.1 billion in producers losses.