OVERTON – Some East Texas old-timers are already saying the current drought is worse than the drought of 1955-56, but from historical records, it's not quite that bad.
At least, not yet, said Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon, acting climatologist for the state of Texas.
"If we don't get rain for another two months, then it will be comparable," said Nielsen-Gammon, associate professor with the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M University in College Station.
The current drought does have some features in common with the drought of 1955-56. Where as the rainless months of most droughts fall during the late spring and summer, both the 1955-56 drought and the current drought have been characterized by a dry fall and winter.
Though East Texas could receive substantial rains this spring, the odds are slightly in favor of the drought continuing, according to Nielsen-Gammon.
Based on the strength of La Nina, he put the chances the drought will continue at 60/40: that is, 60 percent for the drought to continue for at least another couple of months.
Climatologists refer to abnormally cold sea-surface temperatures stretching from the coast of South America across the eastern tropical Pacific as a "La Nina episode." There has been a strong "La Nina episode" present since the summer of 1998.
While the strength of this La Nina has varied since that year, the pool of cold water has recently re-intensified. Climatologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast it to remain in place until at least spring 2000.
The colder than normal water of La Nina reduces the number and strength of tropical thunderstorms in its area. The reduced tropical thunderstorms in turn affect circulation patterns over the United States. The path of the jet stream across North America is altered, giving differing parts of the country more or less storms than usual.
Not only is it more likely the drought will continue through the spring of 2000, new research indicates Texas producers might do well to plan for drought rather than to plan against it.
A study by U.S. Department of Agriculture researchers looked at long-term variations in precipitation from Nebraska southward through northern and eastern Texas. The study shows the past 20 years or so have been very wet compared to the rest of the century. Moreover, the 20-year wet period is unmatched in historical weather records. In other words, what is seen as a series of droughts since 1995 may be more of the norm than the exception.
The USDA researchers noted that farmers and ranchers who know they are in the middle of a wet period may be able to take advantage of the increased rainfall.
"On the other hand, all wet periods come to an end, and if the present drought is simply a return to more 'normal' rainfall patterns, it may be time to get used to it," Nielsen-Gammon said.
The unusual pattern of the current drought has caught many East Texas livestock producers off guard, said Dr. Todd Thrift, livestock specialist with the Texas Agricultural Extension Service.
With good rains in the spring and early summer, most producers grew abundant hay. However, expecting more rain, ranchers sold what they saw as surplus hay.
Now, with no winter pasture and low hay stocks, many East Texas producers are beginning to experience forage shortages.
The traditional management strategy during a drought is to wean and sell off calves. The theory is that getting rid of the calf lowers a cow's nutrient needs.
Because lightweight weaned calves, those under 300 pounds, do not consume very much forage, the more appropriate strategy may be to sell older cows, those 8 years and older, and young replacement heifers producers planned to keep, Thrift said.
"Selling off potential replacement heifers goes against the grain of traditional strategies, but the young heifer is a high-forage consumer and two years away from generating any income. Plus, she's worth a lot right now as a feeder heifer," Thrift said.
Dr. Greg Clary, Extension economist, said livestock producers should consider permanently lowering stocking rates and inputs even without drought conditions.
"Being proactive now might prevent them from having to later abandon the cow-calf business altogether," Clary said.
Even in times of good rainfall, economic analysis of East Texas operations show they could be more profitable if producers lowered their stocking rates and capital inputs.
"For some, the flexibility offered by having stockers may be less stressful than maintaining a cow-calf herd," Clary said.
Dr. Larry Redmon, Extension forage specialist, said, "Drought management is not business as usual."
Cattle producers need to be proactive not reactive. Hay supplies are already short, and if producers wait until March or April to cull herds it may be too late, Redmon said.
Redmon, as do many other agricultural professionals, believe there's a good chance the drought will continue for some time.
By permanently reducing stocking rates, ranchers can position themselves to operate efficiently during dry times. During wet periods they could wean calves and raise stocker cattle to take advantage of increased forage supplies.
"Too many of our producers presently are stocked right on the ragged edge," Redmon said.
This also might be a good year to consider drilling a well instead of relying on creeks or stock ponds, Redmon noted.
"For some, it's not going to be a question of enough grass but enough water," Redmon said.
While drought can have an immediate impact on livestock, tree crops don't mature in a few years, and foresters tend to think in decades rather than years. That's why Dr. Eric Taylor, Extension forestry specialist, considers the weather of the past couple of years as a "dry spell."
Taylor explained, "By definition, droughts last a decade or more. Though there's quite a bit of data suggesting this is the early middle of a real drought."
East Texas sandy soils dry out pretty quickly, however, and Taylor says it's a good idea to start using drought management strategies for forests now.
"We're definitely discouraging landowners from re-seeding pine on hillsides and other dry areas. If they have seedlings, then using them in bottomland or areas with sub-irrigation is a better bet," Taylor said.
For existing forest stands, Taylor recommends removing all unwanted vegetation such as brush, weeds and undesirable trees to make more nutrients and water available to the remaining trees.
"If they do this, they're essentially watering their trees," Taylor said.
In conjunction with the mild winter, the drought could make for an unusual insect situation in East Texas this year, said Dr. James Robinson, Extension entomologist.
"Entomologists don't have research data showing a relationship between mild winters and increased insects in the spring, but the general opinion is that more insects, spiders and mites over-winter, meaning larger numbers in the spring," Robinson said.
Robinson expects more grasshoppers, spider mites and other crawling insects this summer.
On the positive side, because of the drought, East Texans should see fewer of the flying, biting type of insects, which include mosquitoes, horseflies, blackflies and common houseflies. Successful hatches of these insects are dependent on water, either standing pools or flooded streams.
Producers should be on the lookout for insects such as fall armyworms if it does rain.
"We see this happen often after an extended dry period," Robinson said.